Abstract
This paper examines whether school COVID-19 policies influenced enrollment differently by student age and race/ethnicity. Unlike much prior research, we i) analyze enrollments for virtually the entire U.S. public school population for both the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 school years, ii) compare enrollment trends within districts in order to isolate subgroup heterogeneity from district characteristics, and iii) account for district selection into preferred learning modes. Analyzing data on over 9,000 districts that serve more than 90% of public school students in the United States, we find enrollment responses to COVID policies differed notably. We find that White enrollments declined more than Black, Hispanic, and Asian enrollments in districts that started the 2020-2021 school year virtually, but in districts that started in-person the reverse was true: Non-White enrollments declined more than White enrollments. Moreover, Black, Hispanic, and Asian families responded more than White families to higher COVID-19 death rates in the months preceding the start of the 2021 school year. In 2021-2022, enrollment differences by the previous year's learning mode persisted. Racial/ethnic differences did not vary by whether the district required masking in classrooms. These findings are consistent with the greater risk faced by communities of color during the pandemic and demonstrate an additional source of disparate impact from COVID policies.