Abstract
The climate benefits of some Voluntary Carbon Market projects may be overestimated due to a lack of accounting for albedo change. Here we analyze 172 Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegetation projects within the market and find more than 10% occur in places where albedo may entirely negate the climate mitigation benefit, and a quarter occur in places where albedo may halve the mitigation benefit. Yet, the majority are concentrated where albedo changes are expected to be minimal, and 9% of projects occur where albedo would augment the mitigation benefit. Recent data are making albedo accounting possible, and we outline an iterative approach for incorporating albedo considerations into carbon crediting protocols to prioritize projects with greater climate benefit and more accurately quantify credits that may be used to address unabated emissions. We also call on the scientific community to create tools to enable accounting for other important biophysical changes, such as evapotranspiration, which is not yet quantifiable within the Voluntary Carbon Market.