Abstract
The large sales volume and a great number of passenger car ownership in China have brought a series of environmental and energy problems. In response to these problems, Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Dual-credit Regulation has been put forward in China. However, it is found that although the purpose of the Dual-credit Regulation is controlling the fuel consumption and promoting the development of the energy vehicle market, the fuel consumption restriction for fossil-fueled passenger cars is relaxed compared to CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) regulation alone. Moreover, this effect of relaxation is more obvious when the market share of new energy vehicles increases. To quantitatively estimate the relaxation effect of the fuel consumption restriction, a method of quantifying the relaxation effect is designed, and three different scenarios of new energy vehicle market development have been presumed in this paper. It is found that there are three main factors related to new energy vehicles that cause the relaxation of fuel consumption restriction, and the effect might become obvious and severe after 2025 if the market share of new energy vehicles develops very rapidly. These results may affect the development of the automotive industry and needed to be concerned.