Abstract
Peaking industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is critical for China to achieve its CO2 peaking target by 2030 since industrial sector is a major contributor to CO2 emissions. Heavy industrial regions consume plenty of fossil fuels and emit a large amount of CO2 emissions, which also have huge CO2 emissions reduction potential. It is significant to accurately forecast CO2 emission peak of industrial sector in heavy industrial regions from multi-industry and multi-energy type perspectives. This study incorporates 41 industries and 16 types of energy into the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model to predict the CO2 emission peak of the industrial sector in Jilin Province, a typical heavy industrial region. Four scenarios including business-as-usual scenario (BAU), energy-saving scenario (ESS), energy-saving and low-carbon scenario (ELS) and low-carbon scenario (LCS) are set for simulating the future CO2 emission trends during 2018−2050. The method of variable control is utilized to explore the degree and the direction of influencing factors of CO2 emission in four scenarios. The results indicate that the peak value of CO2 emission in the four scenarios are 165.65 million tons (Mt), 156.80 Mt, 128.16 Mt, and 114.17 Mt in 2040, 2040, 2030 and 2020, respectively. Taking ELS as an example, the larger energy-intensive industries such as ferrous metal smelting will peak CO2 emission in 2025, and low energy industries such as automobile manufacturing will continue to develop rapidly. The influence degree of the four factors is as follows: industrial added value (1.27) > industrial structure (1.19) > energy intensity of each industry (1.12) > energy consumption types of each industry (1.02). Among the four factors, industrial value added is a positive factor for CO2 emission, and the rest are inhibitory ones. The study provides a reference for developing industrial CO2 emission reduction policies from multi-industry and multi-energy type perspectives in heavy industrial regions of developing countries.