Abstract
This study investigates whether long-term global warming is associated with fertility decline across 195 countries from 1960 to 2023, and whether this relationship varies by economic development and adaptive capacity. We analyze Total Fertility Rate (TFR) data from the World Bank alongside temperature anomaly measures from NOAA and NASA using Pearson correlations and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models. Regional analyses include Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Arctic, with GDP per capita serving as a proxy for economic development and adaptive capacity. Globally, temperature anomalies and fertility exhibit a strong negative correlation (r≈-0.90, p<0.001). However, substantial regional heterogeneity emerges after controlling for GDP. In Africa (r=-0.89) and the Middle East, temperature anomalies remain statistically significant predictors of fertility decline even after GDP adjustment (β=-0.99, p<0.001; β=-1.27, p<0.001, respectively). In contrast, temperature effects become statistically insignificant in South Asia, East Asia, Europe, and the Arctic once GDP is controlled, indicating that fertility decline in these regions is driven primarily by socioeconomic modernization rather than climatic stress. These findings suggest that global warming functions as a conditional demographic stressor whose impact depends critically on adaptive capacity. In regions with limited infrastructure, including constrained access to air conditioning, healthcare, and occupational heat protection, rising temperatures remain significant predictors of fertility decline, potentially mediated through heat-sensitive biological mechanisms such as impaired spermatogenesis. By contrast, in higher-income regions, high adaptive capacity appears to buffer reproductive systems from thermal stress, allowing socioeconomic factors to dominate fertility dynamics.