SARS-CoV-2 Evolution: Immune Dynamics, Omicron Specificity, and Predictive Modeling in Vaccinated Populations

SARS-CoV-2 的演变:免疫动力学、Omicron 特异性和疫苗接种人群的预测模型

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Abstract

Host immunity is central to the virus's spread dynamics, which is significantly influenced by vaccination and prior infection experiences. In this work, we analyzed the co-evolution of SARS-CoV-2 mutation, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor binding, and neutralizing antibody (NAb) responses across various variants in 822 human and mice vaccinated with different non-Omicron and Omicron vaccines is analyzed. The link between vaccine efficacy and vaccine type, dosing, and post-vaccination duration is revealed. The classification of immune protection against non-Omicron and Omicron variants is co-evolved with genetic mutations and vaccination. Additionally, a model, the Prevalence Score (P-Score) is introduced, which surpasses previous algorithm-based models in predicting the potential prevalence of new variants in vaccinated populations. The hybrid vaccination combining the wild-type (WT) inactivated vaccine with the Omicron BA.4/5 mRNA vaccine may provide broad protection against both non-Omicron variants and Omicron variants, albeit with EG.5.1 still posing a risk. In conclusion, these findings enhance understanding of population immunity variations and provide valuable insights for future vaccine development and public health strategies.

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