Abstract
BACKGROUND: Ayeyarwady Region in Myanmar has made significant progress towards malaria elimination, with cases decreasing from 12,312 in 2015 to 122 in 2019. As transmission declines, malaria becomes increasingly focalized both in geographic hotspots and among population groups sharing certain risk factors. Developing a thorough profile of high-risk activities associated with malaria infections is critical to ensure intervention approaches are evidence-based. METHODS: A test-negative study was conducted from September 2017 to May 2018 in Ngaputaw, Pathein and Thabaung townships in Ayeyarwady Region. Patients that presented to selected public facilities or community health volunteers with fever answered survey questions on demographic and behavioural risk factors, including exposure to malaria interventions, and were assigned to case and control groups based on the result of a malaria rapid diagnostic test. A random-effects logistic regression model adjusted for clustering at the facility level, as well as any variables along the causal pathway described by a directed acyclic graph, was used to determine odds ratios and association with malaria infections. RESULTS: A total of 119 cases and 1744 controls were recruited from 41 public facilities, with a mean age of 31.3 and 63.7% male. Higher risk groups were identified as males (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.9) and those with a worksite located within the forest (aOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.4-5.3), specifically working in the logging (aOR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5-4.6) and rubber plantation (aOR 3.0, 95% CI 1.4-6.8) industries. Additionally, links between forest travel and malaria were observed, with risk factors identified to be sleeping in the forest within the past month (aOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.3), and extended forest travel with durations from 3 to 14 days (aOR 8.6, 95% CI 3.5-21.4) or longer periods (aOR 8.4, 95% CI 3.2-21.6). CONCLUSION: Malaria transmission is highly focalized in Ayeyarwady, and results illustrate the need to target interventions to the most at-risk populations of working males and forest goers. It will become increasingly necessary to ensure full intervention coverage of at-risk populations active in forested areas as Myanmar moves closer to malaria elimination goals.