Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. METHODS: HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. RESULTS: Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone. CONCLUSIONS: HYDREMATS can be used to make reasonable predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, and provide early warnings of the potential for malaria epidemics in Africa.