Abstract
BACKGROUND: Benign meningiomas are the most frequently reported central nervous system tumors in the United States, with increasing incidence in past decades. However, the future trajectory of this neoplasm remains unclear. METHODS: We analyzed benign meningioma incidence of cases identified by any means (eg, radiographically with or without microscopic confirmation) in US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registries among groups aged 35 to 84 years during 2004-2017 by sex and race and ethnicity using age-period-cohort models. We employed age-period-cohort forecasting models to glean insights regarding the etiology, distribution, and anticipated future (2018-2027) public health impact of this neoplasm. RESULTS: In all groups, meningioma incidence overall increased through 2010, then stabilized. Temporal declines were statistically significant overall and in most groups. JoinPoint analysis of cohort rate-ratios identified substantial acceleration in White men born after 1963 (from 1.1% to 3.2% per birth year); cohort rate-ratios were stable or increasing in all groups and all birth cohorts. We forecast that meningioma incidence through 2027 will remain stable or decrease among groups aged 55-84 years but remain similar to current levels among groups aged 35-54 years. The case count of total meningioma burden in 2027 is expected to be approximately 30 470, similar to the expected case count of 27 830 in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2004 and 2017, overall incidence of benign meningioma increased and then stabilized or declined. For 2018-2027, our forecast is incidence will remain generally stable in younger age groups but decrease in older age groups. Nonetheless, the total future burden will remain similar to current levels because the population is aging.