Abstract
BACKGROUND: Conventional nutritional metrics are closely associated with the prognosis of patients with radically resected esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Nevertheless, the prognostic implications of muscle and adipose tissue composite indexes in ESCC remain unknown. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed clinicopathological data of 304 patients who underwent resected ESCC. To obtain measurements of the muscle and adipose indexes, preoperative computed tomography (CT) images were used to quantify skeletal-muscle adipose tissue. The diagnostic threshold for muscle-adipose imbalance was determined using X-tile software and used to analyze the association between the muscle-adipose index (MAI) and survival. Instantaneous risk of recurrence was assessed using a hazard function. We constructed a nomogram based on the MAI and other clinical characteristics and established a novel predictive model with independent prognostic factors. The prognostic capabilities of these nomograms were evaluated using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision-curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates in the muscle-adipose-balanced group were significantly better than those in the muscle-adipose-imbalanced group. Multivariate analyses revealed that the MAI, prognostic nutritional index (PNI), tumor stage, and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors for OS and DFS in patients with resected ESCC (P < 0.05). The nuclear density curve indicated a lower risk of recurrence for patients in the muscle-adipose-balanced group than that for their imbalanced counterparts. Conversely, the nuclear density curve for PNI was confounded. Postoperative radiotherapy- (RT) benefit analysis demonstrated that patients with ESCC in the muscle-adipose-balanced group could benefit from adjuvant RT. CONCLUSION: This study confirmed that preoperative MAI could serve as a useful independent prognostic factor in patients with resected ESCC. A nomogram based on the MAI and other clinical characteristics could provide individualized survival prediction for patients receiving radical resection. Timely and appropriate nutritional supplements may improve treatment efficacy.