Abstract
INTRODUCTION: There is a lack of reliable predictors of disease behavior progression in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). Real-time shear-wave elastography (SWE) is a novel method for evaluating tissue stiffness. However, its value for assessing CD has not yet been investigated. We aimed to explore the value of SWE and other ultrasound parameters at diagnosis in predicting CD behavior progression. METHODS: We retrospectively collected data from patients with CD with the nonstenotic nonpenetrating disease (B1 phenotype based on the Montreal classification). All patients underwent intestinal ultrasound at baseline and were followed up. The end point was defined as disease behavior progression to stricturing (B2) or penetrating (B3) disease. Cox regression analysis was performed for the association between baseline characteristics and subsequent end points. In addition, a multivariate nomogram was established to predict the risk of disease behavior progression quantitatively. RESULTS: A total of 130 patients with CD with B1 phenotype were enrolled. Twenty-seven patients (20.8%) developed B2 or B3 disease, with a median follow-up of 33 months. Multivariate analysis identified that SWE was the only independent predictor of disease behavior progression (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.12, P = 0.001). A reverse of the HR appeared at the cutoff 12.75 kPa. The nomogram incorporating SWE and other clinical characteristics showed a good prediction performance (area under the curve = 0.792). DISCUSSION: Intestinal stiffness assessed using SWE is an independent predictor of disease behavior progression in patients with CD. Patients with CD with SWE >12.75 kPa at diagnosis are prone to progress toward stricturing or penetrating diseases.