Abstract
BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a potential contributing factor for poor prognosis of spontaneous basal ganglia hemorrhage (BGH). This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of new inflammatory biomarkers including neutrophil to lymphocytes (NLR) on admission and construct a nomogram for rapidly predicting GIB in acute BGH. METHODS: The retrospective study included all patients with acute BGH admitted from the emergency department in Huashan Hospital from July 2017 to January 2019. Multivariate analysis was conducted to evaluate the correlation between factors within 24 h and the occurrence of GIB within 7 days after BGH. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was performed to estimate the prediction ability of inflammatory biomarkers. A nomogram based on significant predictors was validated by ROC curve and calibration curve. RESULTS: A total of 122 patients were enrolled in this study, and the incidence of GIB was 23.0%. Patients with GIB had larger hematoma volume (≥30 ml), lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score (≤8) and increased inflammatory biomarkers on admission. ROC curve revealed that NLR had a high predictive value to the complication (area under the curve = 0.87). According to multivariate analysis, NLR, GCS score, and hematoma volume were main factors for nomogram, with good calibration and discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and GCS score within 24 h after the onset of acute BGH are the independent risk factors for GIB. The nomogram developed by these predictors may assist surgeons in rapidly assessing and preventing of GIB for BGH patients in earlier stage.