Abstract
For terrestrial plant communities, the increase in frequency and intensity of drought events is considered as one of the most severe consequences of climate change. While single-species studies demonstrate that drought can lead to relatively rapid adaptive genetic changes, the evolutionary potential and constraints to selection need to be assessed in comparative approaches to draw more general conclusions. In a greenhouse experiment, we compare the phenotypic response and evolutionary potential of two co-occurring grassland plant species, Bromus erectus and Trifolium pratense, in two environments differing in water availability. We quantified variation in functional traits and reproductive fitness in response to drought and compared multivariate genetic variance-covariance matrices and predicted evolutionary responses between species. Species showed different drought adaptation strategies, reflected in both their species-specific phenotypic plasticity and predicted responses to selection indicating contrasting evolutionary potential under drought. In T. pratense we found evidence for stronger genetic constraints under drought compared to more favourable conditions, and for some traits plastic and predicted evolutionary responses to drought had opposing directions, likely limiting the potential for adaptive change. Our study contributes to a more detailed understanding of the evolutionary potential of species with different adaptive strategies in response to climate change and may help to inform future scenarios for semi-natural grassland ecosystems.