Abstract
BACKGROUND: The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, recognized for its cost-efficiency and simplicity, serves as an accessible indicator of insulin resistance. Yet, its correlation with the risk of prediabetes and diabetes (Pre-DM/DM) in the Chinese demographic remains uncertain. Consequently, our study explored the association between the TyG index and the development of Pre-DM/DM within the Chinese population. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study was carried out utilizing data from a health screening initiative. The study included 179541 adults over 20 who underwent medical examinations at the Rich Healthcare Group over a period spanning from 2010 to 2016. The correlation between the TyG index and Pre-DM/DM risk was investigated using Cox regression analysis. Furthermore, Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting was incorporated to explore their non-linear connection. RESULTS: The mean age of study participants was 41.18 ± 12.20 years old, and 95255 (53.05%) were male. During a median follow-up of 3.01 years, 21281 (11.85%) participants were diagnosed with Pre-DM/DM. After adjusting the potential confounding factors, the results showed that the TyG index was positively correlated with incident Pre-DM/DM (HR: 1.67, 95%CI: 1.62-1.71, P< 0.001). Additionally, a non-linear association was observed between the TyG index and the onset of Pre-DM/DM, with an inflection point identified at 8.73. Hazard ratios (HR) to the left and right of this inflection point were 1.95 (95%CI: 1.86-2.04) and 1.34 (95%CI: 1.27-1.42), respectively. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses confirmed the stability of these findings. CONCLUSION: The TyG index exhibited a non-linear positive relationship with the risk of Pre-DM/DM. These findings imply that maintaining the TyG index at a lower, specified threshold may be beneficial in mitigating the onset of Pre-DM/DM.