Abstract
BACKGROUND: Gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) have been proven to be valuable predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The aim of this study was to investigate the association between GGT/HDL-C ratio and incident T2DM. METHODS: The study retrospectively analyzed 15453 participants from 2004 to 2015. Cox proportional hazards regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to elucidate the effect of GGT/HDL-C ratio on T2DM. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis was performed to explore any non-linear correlation between GGT/HDL-C ratio and the risk of T2DM. The predictive performance of GGT, HDL-C and GGT/HDL-C ratio for T2DM was evaluated utilizing receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.39 years, 373 cases of incident T2DM were observed. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the cumulative probabilities of T2DM increased in the participants with higher GGT/HDL-C ratio significantly (P < 0.001). Cox models further clarified that high GGT/HDL-C ratio was an independent risk factor for T2DM (HR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.01, P = 0.011). Linear positive correlation between GGT/HDL-C ratio and the risk of T2DM was demonstrated through RCS analysis. In the ROC analysis, GGT/HDL-C ratio (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.73-0.77) showed competitive role in the prediction of T2DM compared with single GGT and HDL-C. CONCLUSIONS: The GGT/HDL-C ratio could serve as a valuable predictor of T2DM, and the risk of T2DM increases in the condition of higher GGT/HDL-C ratio.