Abstract
BACKGROUND: Conservative treatment remains a viable option for selected patients with ectopic pregnancy (EP), but failure may lead to rupture and serious complications. Currently, serum β-hCG is the main predictor for treatment outcomes, yet its accuracy is limited. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model that integrates radiomic features derived from super-resolution (SR) ultrasound images with clinical biomarkers to improve risk stratification. METHODS: A total of 228 patients with EP receiving conservative treatment were retrospectively included, with 169 classified as treatment success and 59 as failure. SR images were generated using a deep learning-based generative adversarial network (GAN). Radiomic features were extracted from both normal-resolution (NR) and SR ultrasound images. Features with intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) ≥ 0.75 were retained after intra- and inter-observer evaluation. Feature selection involved statistical testing and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression. Random forest algorithms were used to construct NR and SR models. A clinical model based on serum β-hCG was also developed. The Clin-SR model was constructed by fusing SR radiomics with β-hCG values. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA). An independent temporal validation cohort (n = 40; 20 failures, 20 successes) was used to validation of the nomogram derived from the Clin-SR model. RESULTS: The SR model significantly outperformed the NR model in the test cohort (AUC: 0.791 ± 0.015 vs. 0.629 ± 0.083). In a representative iteration, the Clin-SR fusion model achieved an AUC of 0.870 ± 0.015, with good calibration and net clinical benefit, suggesting reliable performance in predicting conservative treatment failure. In the independent validation cohort, the nomogram demonstrated good generalizability with an AUC of 0.808 and consistent calibration across risk thresholds. Key contributing radiomic features included Gray Level Variance and Voxel Volume, reflecting lesion heterogeneity and size. CONCLUSIONS: The Clin-SR model, which integrates deep learning-enhanced SR ultrasound radiomics with serum β-hCG, offers a robust and non-invasive tool for predicting conservative treatment failure in ectopic pregnancy. This multimodal approach enhances early risk stratification and supports personalized clinical decision-making, potentially reducing overtreatment and emergency interventions.