Abstract
BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have an increased risk of peripheral arterial disease (PAD). The ankle-brachial index (ABI), a noninvasive measure of PAD, is a predictor of adverse events among individuals with CKD. In general populations, changes in ABI have been associated with mortality, but this association is not well understood among patients with CKD. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study of 2920 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study without lower extremity revascularization or amputation at baseline and with at least one follow-up ABI measurement (taken at annual visits) during the first 4 years of follow-up. The ABI was obtained by the standard protocol. RESULTS: In Cox proportional hazard regression analyses, we found a U-shaped association of average annual change in ABI with all-cause mortality. After adjusting for baseline ABI and other covariates, compared with participants with an average annual change in ABI of 0-<0.02, individuals with an average annual change in ABI <-0.04 or ≥0.04 had multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.81 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-2.44) and 1.42 (95% CI 1.12-1.82) for all-cause mortality, respectively. Compared with the cumulative average ABI of 1.0-<1.4, multivariable-adjusted HRs for those with a cumulative average ABI of <0.9, 0.9-<1.0 and ≥1.4 were 1.93 (95% CI 1.42-2.61), 1.20 (0.90-1.62) and 1.31 (0.94-1.82), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates both larger decreases and increases in average annual changes in ABI (>0.04/year) were associated with higher mortality risk. Monitoring changes in ABI over time may facilitate risk stratification for mortality among individuals with CKD.