Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Accurate prediction of extrathyroidal extension and subsequent recurrence is crucial in papillary thyroid cancer clinical management. Our aim was to conduct iodine map-based radiomics to predict extrathyroidal extension and to explore its prognostic value for recurrence-free survival in papillary thyroid cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 452 patients with papillary thyroid cancer were retrospectively recruited between June 2017 and June 2020. Radiomics features were extracted from noncontrast images, dual-phase mixed images, and iodine maps, respectively. Random forest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were applied to build 6 radiomics scores (noncontrast radiomics score_random forest; noncontrast rad-score_LASSO; mixed rad-score_random forest; mixed rad-score_LASSO; iodine radiomics score_random forest; iodine radiomics score_LASSO) respectively. Logistic regression was used to construct 6 radiomics models incorporating 6 radiomics scores with clinical risk factors and to compare them with the clinical model. A radiomics model that achieved the highest performance was presented as a nomogram and assessed by discrimination, calibration, clinical usefulness, and prognosis evaluation. RESULTS: Iodine radiomics scores performed significantly better than mixed radiomics scores. Both of them outperformed noncontrast radiomics scores. Iodine map-based radiomics models significantly surpassed the clinical model. A radiomics nomogram incorporating size, capsule contact, and iodine radiomics score_random forest was built with the highest performance (training set, area under the curve = 0.78; validation set, area under the curve = 0.84). Stratified analysis confirmed the nomogram stability, especially in group negative for CT-reported extrathyroidal extension (area under the curve = 0.69). Nomogram-predicted extrathyroidal extension risk was an independent predictor of recurrence-free survival. A high risk for extrathyroidal extension portended significantly lower recurrence-free survival than low risk (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Iodine map-based radiomics might be a supporting tool for predicting extrathyroidal extension and subsequent recurrence risk in patients with papillary thyroid cancer, thus facilitating clinical decision-making.