Abstract
PURPOSE: To determine the rates and develop an initial risk prediction model for nonadherence to post screening ophthalmic referral (PSOR) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients attending a national diabetic retinopathy screening program in Singapore. METHODS: Data from 2387 patients with T2DM (mean [standard deviation] age: 66.5 [11] years; 52.5% female patients) who underwent teleophthalmic screening between 2010 and 2014 under the Singapore Integrated Diabetic Retinopathy Program were extracted from electronic medical records. All were referred for tertiary ophthalmic management at the Singapore National Eye Centre (SNEC). Nonadherence was defined as not attending the SNEC appointment within 6 months of the assigned appointment date. Regression analysis using traditional modified Poisson and conditional inference models was used to construct and evaluate the discriminative ability of the preliminary risk prediction model to identify nonadherent individuals. RESULTS: Nonadherence rates to PSOR was 12.7% (95% confidence interval, 11.4%-14.1%). In traditional multivariable models adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and ocular factors, nonadherent individuals had higher triglyceride levels and were less likely to have a referable eye condition (P < 0.05). This model was able to identify nonadherent individuals with an accuracy (area under the curve) of 84%. In contrast, the conditional inference model was able to achieve similar discriminative ability using only participants' ocular health characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The rates of nonadherence to PSOR in Singaporean individuals with T2DM is low, with better ocular health being strongly predictive of nonadherence in our Asian population. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: Our results may inform interventions to decrease nonadherence to PSOR.