Abstract
Seriphidium transiliense is a key species in the arid and semi-arid desert grasslands of Northwest China, playing crucial roles in maintaining ecological balance, stabilizing soil, and supporting biodiversity. However, the combined effects of global climate change and human activities are leading to a dramatic reduction in suitable habitat area, intensified habitat fragmentation, and ecosystem degradation. This study utilizes the MaxEnt model, along with field investigation data and online recorded data, selecting 159 effective occurrence points and integrating 20 environmental variables such as bioclimatic, soil, topographic, solar radiation, and human footprint factors, to evaluate the distribution patterns and dynamic changes of suitable habitats for S. transiliense under current climatic conditions and six future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). The results indicate that the total suitable habitat area for S. transiliense under current conditions is 86.20 × 10(4) km(2), mainly concentrated in northern Xinjiang. Human activities have drastically reduced the suitable habitat area, with the total area shrinking to 75.78 × 10(4) km(2), and the highly suitable habitat area decreasing from 5.72 × 10(4) km(2) to 2.00 × 10(4) km(2). Climate change in the future might expand its distribution range, but human activities continue to threaten its habitat, especially in areas of highly suitable habitat. The distribution center tends to migrate southeastward or northwestward under different climate scenarios, along with shifts in elevation. This research provides a scientific basis for the monitoring, protection, and ecological restoration of S. transiliense and underscores the necessity of scientific management and reseeding restoration amid escalating human activities.