Abstract
Climate change may affect the survival and reproduction of ectotherms. The toad-headed lizard Phrynocephalus theobaldi, which holds the distinction of occupying the highest elevation among all reptile species on Earth, with an elevational range from 3600 to 5000 m, represents an ideal model for studying the adaptations to climatic changes across elevational gradients. Here, we used mechanistic and hybrid species distribution models (HSDM) together with characteristic measurements of thermal biology (CT(max), CT(min), and T(sel)) to simulate and compare the distribution and activity periods of the lizard across elevations in response to climate change. NicheMapR simulations using only climate factors predicted that all populations will be negatively impacted by climate change (+3°C) by suffering a reduced distribution. However, the impact was clearly reduced in simulations that accounted for thermal physiological traits. Longer activity periods were predicted for all populations during climate change. The suitable distribution is predicted to change slightly, with an increase anticipated for both high and low elevation populations. However, the forecast indicates a more pronounced increase in suitable habitats for populations at higher elevations (>4200 m) compared to those at lower elevations (<4200 m). This study underscores the key influence of climate change on population establishment and stresses the importance of physiological traits in distribution simulation for future studies to understand the potential constraints in animal adaptation to extreme high environments.