Abstract
The core breeding range of Swainson's warbler (Limnothlypis swainsonii) overlaps a zone of exceptionally high tornado frequency in southeastern North America. The importance of tornadoes in creating breeding habitat for this globally rare warbler and other disturbance-dependent species has been largely overlooked. This paper estimates tornado frequency (1950-2021) and forest disturbance in the 240 counties and parishes in which breeding was documented from 1988 to 2014. The frequency of destructive tornadoes (EF1-EF5) varied 6-fold across the breeding range with a peak in the Gulf Coast states. Counties from east Texas to Alabama experienced the lowest median return interval of 5.4 years per 1000 km(2), resulting in approximately 2477 ha of forest damage per 1000 km(2) per century, based on current forestland cover. Tornadoes were significantly less frequent north and east of the core breeding range, with return intervals increasing to 9.1 years per 1000 km(2) for breeding counties on the Atlantic coastal plain, 10.2 years per 1000 km(2) in the Ozark Mountains, and 32.3 years per 1000 km(2) in the Appalachian Mountains. Breeding counties within 150 km of the coastline from east Texas to North Carolina are also subjected to the highest frequency of hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere. Hurricanes often cause massive forest damage but archived meteorological and forestry data are insufficient to estimate the aggregate extent of forest disturbance in breeding counties. Nevertheless, the combined impact of tornadoes and hurricanes in the pre-Anthropogenic era was likely sufficient to produce a dynamic mosaic of early-successional forest crucial for the breeding ecology of Swainson's warbler. To ensure the long-term survival of this rare warbler, it is advisable to develop habitat management plans that incorporate remote sensing data on early-successional forest generated by catastrophic storms as well as anthropogenic activities.