Abstract
Anthropogenic and climatic factors affect the survival of animal species. Chinese pangolin is a critically endangered species, and identifying which variables lead to local extinction events is essential for conservation management. Local chronicles in China serve as long-term monitoring data, providing a perspective to disentangle the roles of human impacts and climate changes in local extinctions. Therefore, we established generalized additive models to identify factors leading to local extinction with historical data from 1700-2000 AD in mainland China. Then we decreased the time scale and constructed extinction risk models using MaxEnt in a 30-year transect (1970-2000 AD) to further assess extinction probability of extant Chinese pangolin populations. Lastly, we used principal component analysis to assess variation of related anthropogenic and climatic variables. Our results showed that the extinction probability increased with global warming and human population growth. An extinction risk assessment indicated that the population and distribution range of Chinese pangolins had been persistently shrinking in response to highly intensive human activities (main cause) and climate change. PCA results indicated that variability of climatic variables is greater than anthropogenic variables. Overall, the factors causing local extinctions are intensive human interference and drastic climatic fluctuations which induced by the effect of global warming. Approximately 28.10% of extant Chinese pangolins populations are confronted with a notable extinction risk (0.37 ≤ extinction probability≤0.93), specifically those in Southeast China, including Guangdong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Hunan and Fujian Provinces. To rescue this critically endangered species, we suggest strengthening field investigations, identifying the exact distribution range and population density of Chinese pangolins and further optimizing the network of nature reserves to improve conservation coverage on the landscape scale and alleviate human interference. Conservation practices that concentrate on the viability assessment of scattered populations could help to improve restoration strategies of the Chinese pangolin.