Abstract
Endangered Przewalski's horses have faced severe infections from Gasterophilus pecorum (Diptera, Gastrophilidae) in Xinjiang's Kalamaili Nature Reserve (KNR). This study examines G. pecorum's development and infection patterns in embryonic and larval stages, crucial for understanding horse botfly disease in desert grasslands. For the incubation of G. pecorum fertilized eggs, we established the six distinct temperature gradients: 16 °C, 20 °C, 24 °C, 28 °C, 30 °C, and 32 °C. Using the least squares method, we calculated the correlation between the developmental threshold temperature of the eggs and their cumulative effective temperature. Furthermore, we meticulously recorded the survival duration of the larvae across a spectrum of temperature gradients (-20 °C, -10 °C, 4 °C, 10 °C, 20 °C, and 30 °C) and under varying conditions (dark and light). This method allows us to analyze and interpret the impact of these environmental factors on larval survival durations. 1) The formula for predicting the embryonic development period of G. pecorum was N = (182.7 ± 12.03)/[T-(3.191 ± 1.48)], where the developmental threshold temperature was 3.191 ± 1.48 °C, and the effective accumulated temperature was 182.7 ± 12.03 d°C 2) The model describing the relationship between the embryonic development rate and temperature was: y = 0.0001x(2)+0.0007x+0.0378, demonstrating a positive correlation between the development rate and temperature (R-sq = 0.989, p < 0.001). 3) Larvae in the dark group exhibited a longer survival time, with the longest being 9 months at 4 °C. The adaptation of G. pecorum's embryonic development to cold temperature, combined with the extended survival period of larvae in the egg state, significantly increases the infection potential of G. pecorum in colder climates. This discovery offers essential insights into the predominance of G. pecorum in the KNR region and provides a crucial biological basis for the prevention of myiasis and the conservation of vulnerable species, such as Przewalski's horses.