Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The US screening and management guidelines for cervical cancer are based on the absolute risk of precancer estimated from large clinical cohorts and trials. Given the widespread transition toward screening with human papillomavirus (HPV) testing, it is important to assess which additional factors to include in clinical risk assessment to optimize management of HPV-infected women. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from HPV-infected women, ages 30-65 years, in the National Cancer Institute-Kaiser Permanente Northern California Persistence and Progression study. We estimated the influence of HPV risk group, cytology result, and selected cofactors on immediate risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or higher (CIN 3+) among 16,094 HPV-positive women. Cofactors considered included, age, race/ethnicity, income, smoking, and hormonal contraceptive use. RESULTS: Human papillomavirus risk group and cytology test result were strongly correlated with CIN 3+ risk. After considering cytology and HPV risk group, other cofactors (age, race/ethnicity, income, smoking, and hormonal contraceptive use) had minimal impact on CIN 3+ risk and did not change recommended management based on accepted risk thresholds. We had insufficient data to assess the impact of long-duration heavy smoking, parity, history of sexually transmitted infection, or immunosuppression. CONCLUSIONS: In our study at the Kaiser Permanente Northern California, the risk of CIN 3+ was determined mainly by HPV risk group and cytology results, with other cofactors having limited impact in adjusted analyses. This supports the use of HPV and cytology results in risk-based management guidelines.