Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Ultrasound derived carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is valuable for cardiovascular risk stratification. We assessed the relative importance of traditional atherosclerosis risk factors and plasma proteins in predicting cIMT measured nearly a decade later. METHOD: We examined 6,136 UK Biobank participants with 1,461 proteins profiled using the proximity extension assay applied to their baseline blood draw who subsequently underwent a cIMT measurement. We implemented linear regression, stepwise Akaike Information Criterion-based, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) models to identify potential proteomic as well as non-proteomic predictors. We evaluated our model performance using the proportion variance explained (R (2)). RESULT: The mean time from baseline assessment to cIMT measurement was 9.2 years. Age, blood pressure, and anthropometric related variables were the strongest predictors of cIMT with fat-free mass index of the truncal region being the strongest predictor among adiposity measurements. A LASSO model incorporating variables including age, assessment center, genetic risk factors, smoking, blood pressure, trunk fat-free mass index, apolipoprotein B, and Townsend deprivation index combined with 97 proteins achieved the highest R (2) (0.308, 95% C.I. 0.274, 0.341). In contrast, models built with proteins alone or non-proteomic variables alone explained a notably lower R (2) (0.261, 0.228-0.294 and 0.260, 0.226-0.293, respectively). Chromogranin b (CHGB), Cystatin-M/E (CST6), leptin (LEP), and prolargin (PRELP) were the proteins consistently selected across all models. CONCLUSION: Plasma proteins add to the clinical and genetic risk factors in predicting a cIMT measurement. Our findings implicate blood pressure and extracellular matrix-related proteins in cIMT pathophysiology.