Abstract
BACKGROUND: Interleukin (IL)-34 and IL-38 are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, their involvement in atrial fibrillation (AF) and AF-associated adverse events remains uncertain. Therefore, we aimed to investigate their association with various AF prognostic factors in a cohort study and assessed their predictive value for the prognosis of patients with AF. METHODS: Patients with new-onset non-valvular AF were consecutively enrolled between 2013 and 2015 at the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine of the Southwest Hospital of the Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University) in Chongqing, China. The endpoints included stroke and all-cause mortality. The baseline levels of plasma IL-34, IL-38, NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), and GDF-15 were measured and their correlation with AF-related adverse events were analyzed in a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. The C-statistic, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to evaluate the performance of the AF prognostic models. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical net benefit of the original and modified models. RESULTS: A total of 299 patients with new-onset AF were enrolled. During the median follow-up time of 28 (IQR: 27, 29) months, the higher levels of IL-34 were associated with a lower risk of stroke, and the higher levels of IL-38 were associated with an increased risk of all-cause death (all adjusted P < 0.05). In addition, elevated hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP concentrations were associated with a higher risk of stroke and all-cause mortality (all adjusted P < 0.05). Furthermore, the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score combined with IL-38 and NT-proBNP significantly improved the C-statistic, IDI, and NRI (all P < 0.01). There was no statistically significant difference (all P > 0.05) in the discrimination power between the preference models and the ABC (age, biomarkers, and clinical history) score for the two prognostic outcomes. CONCLUSION: Our results suggested that IL-34 and IL-38 were independently associated with stroke and all-cause mortality in patients with AF. Moreover, adding IL-38 and NT-proBNP to the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score significantly improved its predictive ability of AF-related all-cause death. Finally, the preference model performed equally well as the ABC score in predicting AF prognosis.