Abstract
BACKGROUND: Mass Casualty Incidents are rare but can significantly stress healthcare systems. Functional Resonance Analytical Methodology (FRAM) is a systematic approach to model and explore how complex systems adapt to variations and to understand resilient properties in the face of perturbations. The aim of this study was to use FRAM to create a model of a paediatric trauma system during the initial response to the Manchester Arena Attack to provide resilience-based insights for the management of future Mass Casualty Incidents (MCI). METHODS: Qualitative interviews in the immediate aftermath of a terrorist bombing, were followed up with further in-depth probing of subject matter experts to create a validated and verified FRAM model. This model was compared with real incident data, then simplified for future studies. RESULTS: A Work As Imagined (WAI) model of how a paediatric emergency department provided resilient healthcare for MCI patients from reception and resuscitation to definitive care is presented. A focused model exploring the pathway for the most severely injured patients that will facilitate the simulation of a myriad of potential emergency preparedness resilience response scenarios is also presented. CONCLUSIONS: The systematic approach undertaken in this study has produced a model of a paediatric trauma system during the initial response to the Manchester Arena Attack, providing key insights on how a resilient performance was sustained. This modelling may provide an important step forward in the preparedness and planning for future MCIs.