The global, regional, and national burdens of maternal sepsis and other maternal infections and trends from 1990 to 2021 and future trend predictions: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021

1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家层面孕产妇败血症及其他孕产妇感染的负担和趋势以及未来趋势预测:2021年全球疾病负担研究结果

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Maternal sepsis and other maternal infections (MSMIs) significantly contribute to maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide, posing critical challenges due to their rapid progression and severe outcomes. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, covering 204 countries and territories, were used to evaluate the incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of MSMI. Statistical methods included joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort analysis, decomposition analysis, frontier analysis, and ARIMA model forecasting. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, global MSMI incidence decreased from 22.45 million to 19.05 million, with the age-standardized rate (ASR) dropping from 764.03 (95% UI: 573.01-970.54) to 494.19 (95% UI: 377.34-623.90) per 100,000 people. High-SDI regions saw significant reductions, while low-SDI regions experienced increases. Women aged 20-24 consistently had the highest incidence, death, and DALYs. Iron deficiency was a significant risk factor, especially in lower SDI regions. Decomposition analysis showed that epidemiological changes and population growth were major drivers, particularly in low-SDI regions. Age-period-cohort analysis revealed women aged 20-29 as the most vulnerable, with notable improvements after 2000 and progressively decreasing risks in younger cohorts. Frontier analysis revealed that higher-SDI countries had greater improvement potential. ARIMA forecasting suggests continued declines in MSMI cases and ASR through 2040. CONCLUSIONS: While significant progress has been made globally, challenges persist, including rising incidence in low-SDI regions, vulnerability of women aged 20-29, and the impact of iron deficiency. Efforts to address these and improve healthcare infrastructure are critical to further reduce MSMI and enhance maternal health outcomes.

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