Abstract
BACKGROUND: Understanding the clinical course and pivotal time points of COVID-19 aggravation is critical for enhancing patient monitoring. This retrospective, multi-center cohort study aims to identify these significant time points and associate them with potential risk factors, leveraging data from a sizable cohort with mild-to-moderate symptoms upon admission. METHODS: This study included data from 1,696 COVID-19 patients with mild-to-moderate clinical severity upon admission across multiple hospitals in Daegu-Kyungpook Province (Daegu dataset) between February 18 and early March 2020 and 321 COVID-19 patients at Seoul Boramae Hospital (Boramae dataset) collected from February to July 2020. The approach involved: (1) identifying the optimal time point for aggravation using survival analyses with maximally selected rank statistics; (2) investigating the relationship between comorbidities and time to aggravation; and (3) developing prediction models through machine learning techniques. The models were validated internally among patients from the Daegu dataset and externally among patients from the Boramae dataset. RESULTS: The Daegu dataset showed a mean age of 51.0 ± 19.6 years, with 8 days for aggravation and day 5 being identified as the pivotal point for survival. Contrary to previous findings, specific comorbidities had no notable impact on aggravation patterns. Prediction models utilizing factors including age and chest X-ray infiltration demonstrated promising performance, with the top model achieving an AUC of 0.827 in external validation for 5 days aggravation prediction. CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the crucial significance of the initial 5 days period post-admission in managing COVID-19 patients. The identification of this pivotal time frame, combined with our robust predictive models, provides valuable insights for early intervention strategies. This research underscores the potential of proactive monitoring and timely interventions in enhancing patient outcomes, particularly for those at risk of rapid aggravation. Our findings offer a meaningful contribution to understanding the COVID-19 clinical course and supporting healthcare providers in optimizing patient care and resource allocation.