Abstract
BACKGROUND: Nonrandom mating has been shown for psychiatric diagnoses, with hypothesized-but not quantified-implications for offspring liability. This national cohort study enumerated the incidence of major psychiatric disorders among the offspring of parent pairs affected with schizophrenia (SCZ) and/or bipolar disorder (BIP) (i.e., dual-affected pairs). METHODS: Participants were all Swedish residents alive or born between 1968 and 2013 (n = 4,255,196 unique pairs and 8,343,951 offspring). Offspring with dual-affected, single-affected, and unaffected parents were followed (1973-2013) for incidence of broad psychiatric disorders. Primary outcomes included hazard ratio (HR) and cumulative incidence for SCZ and BIP in the offspring. Additional outcomes included any neuropsychiatric, anxiety, depressive, personality, or substance use disorders. Cumulative incidences of SCZ and BIP were used to inform heritability models for these disorders. RESULTS: Hazards were highest within disorder (e.g., offspring of dual-SCZ pairs had sharply raised hazards for SCZ [HR = 55.3]); however, they were significantly raised for all diagnoses (HR range = 2.89-11.84). Incidences were significantly higher for the majority of outcomes, with 43.4% to 48.5% diagnosed with "any" disorder over follow-up. Risks were retained, with modest attenuations, for the offspring of heterotypic pairs. The estimated heritability of liability for SCZ (h(2) = 0.62, 95% confidence interval = 0.55-0.70) and BIP (h(2) = 0.52, 95% confidence interval = 0.46-0.58) did not differ significantly from estimates derived from single-affected parents. CONCLUSIONS: Risks for a broad spectrum of psychiatric diagnoses are significantly raised in the offspring of dual-affected parents, in line with expectations from a polygenic model of liability to disease risk. How these risks may contribute to population maintenance of these disorders is considered.