Abstract
This study investigates how cattle production, energy intensity in agriculture, and environmental degradation (cattle-related CO(2eq) emissions) interact in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Panel VAR models on data from 12 countries between 2000 and 2018, the results show that cattle production Granger-causes both energy intensity and CO(2eq) emissions, and that energy intensity itself Granger-causes CO(2eq) emissions, indicating a clear, unidirectional causal chain. Impulse-response functions suggest that shocks to cattle production initially raise energy intensity and CO(2eq) emissions but eventually lead to reduced CO(2eq) emissions (at the end of the study period). Forecasts project rising cattle output, declining energy intensity, and a gradual decrease in CO(2eq) emissions, suggesting partial decoupling of productivity from environmental harm. Although energy efficiency gains offer mitigation potential, sustained growth in cattle production may offset these improvements without systemic change. These findings underscore the critical role of clean energy and sustainable intensification in cattle systems. The framework developed is applicable beyond LAC, offering insights for other regions facing similar challenges in balancing agricultural growth with environmental sustainability.