Abstract
Household food waste is often framed as a critical challenge for food systems, yet the real potential and impact of waste reduction remain uncertain. This study assessed the prevention potential and the carbon, economic and nutrition footprints of food waste in 41 Swedish households, using data from a digital quantification system over a total of 9843 days. Results showed that 24.4% of food waste was avoidable and 7.3% was possibly avoidable, indicating a prevention potential of 31.7% in total food waste. These fractions had a joint carbon footprint of 19 kg CO(2)e and an economic cost of €66 per person per year. Despite its smaller volume, the possibly avoidable fraction entailed notable nutrient losses, indicating a missed opportunity for improved nutrition. Additionally, two scenarios modeling a 50% reduction in food waste indicated limited climate, economic, and nutritional benefits from halving food waste. These findings suggest that the impact from reducing food waste among Swedish households may be more limited than typically portrayed. Efforts and resources directed toward reducing food waste should therefore be weighed against, or combined with, other interventions, such as promoting dietary shifts, that may offer greater benefits for food system transition. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-026-37302-7.