Abstract
OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is highly prevalent after stroke and is associated with poor outcomes. Currently, after stroke, objective testing must be used to differentiate patients with and without SDB. Within a large, population-based study, we evaluated the usefulness of a flexible statistical model based on baseline characteristics to predict post-stroke SDB. PATIENTS/METHODS: Within a population-based study, participants (2010-2018) underwent SDB screening, shortly after ischemic stroke, with a home sleep apnea test. The respiratory event index (REI) was calculated as the number of apneas and hypopneas per hour of recording; values ≥10 defined SDB. The distributed random forest classifier (a machine learning technique) was applied to predict SDB with the following as predictors: demographics, stroke risk factors, stroke severity (NIHSS), neck and waist circumference, palate position, and pre-stroke symptoms of snoring, apneas, and sleepiness. RESULTS: Within the total sample (n = 1330), median age was 65 years; 47% were women; 32% non-Hispanic white, 62% Mexican American, and 6% African American. SDB was found in 891 (67%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, a measure of predictive ability, applied to the validation sample was 0.75 for the random forest model. Random forest correctly classified 72.5% of validation samples. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, ethnically diverse, population-based sample of ischemic stroke patients, prediction models based on baseline characteristics and clinical measures showed fair rather than clinically reliable performance, even with use of advanced machine learning techniques. Results suggest that objective tests are still needed to differentiate ischemic stroke patients with and without SDB.