Abstract
Drought entails important effects on tree physiology, which may result in short- to long-term radial growth decreases. While the majority of studies have focused on annual drought-related variability of growth, relatively little is known about sustained growth decreases following drought years. We apply a statistical framework to identify climatic factors that induce abrupt growth decreases and may eventually result in tree mortality. We used tree-ring data from almost 500 standing dead trees and 200 living trees in eight sites of the Swiss network of strict forest reserves, including four of the most important Central European tree species (Abies alba, Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus spp.). First, to assess short-term growth responses to drought under various climate and site conditions, we calculated correlations and linear mixed-effects models between ring-width indices (RWIs) and drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Second, to quantify drought effects on abrupt growth decreases, we applied distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), which account for both delayed effects and the nonlinear relationship between the SPEI and the occurrence of abrupt growth decreases. Positive correlations between RWIs and the SPEI indicated short-term growth responses of all species, particularly at arid sites. Results of the DLNMs revealed species-specific growth responses to drought. For Quercus spp., abrupt growth decreases were more likely to occur several years following severe drought, whereas for P. abies, A. alba, and F. sylvatica abrupt growth decreases started frequently immediately in the drought year. We conclude that the statistical framework allows for quantifying the effects of drought intensity on the probability of abrupt growth decreases, which ultimately contributes to an improved understanding of climate impacts on forest community dynamics.