Abstract
Background: Prostate cancer (PCa) is highly heterogeneous, which makes it difficult to precisely distinguish the clinical stages and histological grades of tumor lesions, thereby leading to large amounts of under- and over-treatment. Thus, we expect the development of novel prediction approaches for the prevention of inadequate therapies. The emerging evidence demonstrates the pivotal role of lysosome-related mechanisms in the prognosis of PCa. In this study, we aimed to identify a lysosome-related prognostic predictor in PCa for future therapies. Methods: The PCa samples involved in this study were gathered from The Cancer Genome Atlas database (TCGA) (n = 552) and cBioPortal database (n = 82). During screening, we categorized PCa patients into two immune groups based on median ssGSEA scores. Then, the Gleason score and lysosome-related genes were included and screened out by using a univariate Cox regression analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO) analysis. Following further analysis, the probability of progression free interval (PFI) was modeled by using unadjusted Kaplan-Meier estimation curves and a multivariable Cox regression analysis. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, nomogram and calibration curve were used to examine the predictive value of this model in discriminating progression events from non-events. The model was trained and repeatedly validated by creating a training set (n = 400), an internal validation set (n = 100) and an external validation (n = 82) from the cohort. Results: Following grouping by ssGSEA score, the Gleason score and two LRGs-neutrophil cytosolic factor 1 (NCF1) and gamma-interferon-inducible lysosomal thiol reductase (IFI30)-were screened out to differentiate patients with or without progression (1-year AUC = 0.787; 3-year AUC = 0.798; 5-year AUC = 0.772; 10-year AUC = 0.832). Patients with a higher risk showed poorer outcomes (p < 0.0001) and a higher cumulative hazard (p < 0.0001). Besides this, our risk model combined LRGs with the Gleason score and presented a more accurate prediction of PCa prognosis than the Gleason score alone. In three validation sets, our model still achieved high prediction rates. Conclusion: In conclusion, this novel lysosome-related gene signature, coupled with the Gleason score, works well in PCa for prognosis prediction.