Abstract
RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 has likely impacted accessibility to transplantation services among older adults (age ≥65 years). We quantified the impact of COVID-19 on kidney transplantation access for older kidney-only candidates registered on the United States (US) kidney waitlist. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of registry data. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 57,222 older adults who were part of or added to the US kidney waitlist between January 1, 2016 and February 28, 2022, identified using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR). EXPOSURES: Four COVID-19 waves and one nonwave period based on the national incidence of COVID-19 in the US (initial: March 15-May 30, 2020; winter 2020-2021: December 1, 2020-January 31, 2021; delta: August 1, 2021-September 30, 2021; omicron: December 1, 2021-February 28, 2022; nonwave: inter-wave periods). OUTCOMES: Waitlist registrations, deceased-donor kidney transplants, living-donor kidney transplants, waitlist mortality, and waitlist removals due to deteriorating condition (hereafter referred to as removals). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Poisson regression for the adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) of each outcome during the COVID-19 waves and the nonwave period relative to reference (January 1, 2016-December 31, 2019), adjusted for seasonality and secular trends. RESULTS: Waitlist registrations initially declined and increased henceforth. Deceased-donor kidney transplants and living-donor kidney transplants remained below-expected levels during all waves. Waitlist mortality peaked during the winter 2020-2021 wave (aIRR: (1.70)1.98(2.30)) and has declined since; mortality rates were 139%, 107%, and 251% above expected for Black candidates, men, and candidates aged ≥75 years, respectively, during the winter 2020-2021 wave. Removals increased from 22% below expected levels (initial wave) to 26% above expected levels (omicron wave); removals were nonsignificantly higher than expected during the omicron wave for older Black and Hispanic candidates. LIMITATIONS: The findings are not generalizable to those listed at earlier ages with prolonged waitlist times. Additionally, using national COVID-19 incidence does not consider local policy and health care variations. Lastly, aIRRs must be interpreted cautiously due to smaller daily event counts. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 was associated with fewer transplants and increased mortality and removals in older kidney transplant candidates. Transplant providers should consider this impact and implement policies and practices to ensure the continuity of care. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: The proportion of older adults on the kidney transplant waitlist is increasing, but the impact of COVID-19 on this population is not well characterized. In this study, we looked at incident waitlist registrations, deceased- and living-donor kidney transplants, and waitlist mortality and removals due to deteriorating condition over 4 waves of COVID-19. We found that transplantation services did not fully recover to prepandemic levels as of March 2022. Notably, racial/ethnic minorities and older men experienced lower rates of kidney transplants and higher rates of waitlist mortality, respectively, relative to White candidates and older women. Identifying vulnerable subpopulations affected by COVID-19 and its long-term impact is crucial for creating strategies to ensure the continuity of care in this population during public health emergencies.