Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The Kihon Checklist (KCL) is valuable for predicting long-term care (LTC) certification. However, the precise association between KCL scores and the temporal dynamics of LTC need certification remains unclear. This study clarified the characteristic trajectory of KCL scores in individuals certified for LTC need. METHODS: The KCL scores spanning from 2011 to 2019 were obtained from 5630 older individuals, including those certified for LTC need in November 2020, in Iiyama City, Nagano, Japan. We analyzed the KCL score trajectories using a linear mixed model, both before and after propensity score matching. RESULTS: Throughout the 9-year observation period, the KCL scores consistently remained higher in the certified group compared to the non-certified group. Notably, a significant score increase occurred within the 3 years preceding LTC certification. DISCUSSION: Our findings highlight the effectiveness of continuous surveillance using the KCL in identifying individuals likely to require LTC within a few years.