Abstract
This study characterized developmental emergence of individual alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms, and evaluated their ability as early indicators of progression into alcohol dependence (AD), conditional upon gender, parental alcohol dependence, early onset of drinking, and level of delinquent behavior at onset. The two parameters of interest were (a) likelihood of specific AUD symptom appearance once drinking has begun, and (b) primacy of symptom appearance as an indicator of likelihood for eventual move into diagnosis. We analyzed prospective data from a community sample of high risk youth from childhood to early adulthood. Symptoms that were at higher probability of being experienced at drinking onset and that could serve as good indicators for the early stage of disease progression were: persistent desire or unsuccessful efforts to control alcohol use (AD4), and continued use despite having persistent or recurrent interpersonal problems (AA4). Tolerance (AD1) may serve as an indicator for the intermediate stage of progression. Young people tended to be at an elevated risk for developing AD6 (activities given up), AD7 (physical/psychological problems), and AA3 (legal problems) in later years so these symptoms may be good indicators for later stages of progression. In addition to being male, an early onset drinker, or high in delinquent behavior, drinkers who experienced AA4 or AD1 as first symptoms were at higher risk for progression to AD. We also identified two high risk clusters: late onset drinkers with AA4 as first symptom, and children of alcoholics with AD1 as first symptom.