Abstract
BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer (PC) ranks sixth globally among cancer deaths, imposing a significant burden on healthcare systems worldwide. Although diet is known to be a major risk factor, Although diet is a well-established risk factor for PC, the precise dietary components linked to the disease remain inconclusive, with studies showing varying results across different populations and regions. This study addresses this gap through a comprehensive analysis of PC incidence trends from 1990 to 2021, with a specific focus on associations with age, dietary patterns, and socio-demographic determinants. METHODS: The data utilized in this study were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) results database, updated on May 16, 2024. Unlike traditional single-variable correlation analyses, a Bayesian generalized linear model was applied to assess the association between food intake and disease incidence during the period 1990-2021. To account for variations related to year and region, these variables were incorporated as covariates in the model, allowing for a more nuanced and comprehensive analysis of the background factors. Finally, the "BAPC" package was employed to project age-standardized incidence rates of PC through the year 2051. RESULTS: The global incidence of PC increased from 3.90 per 100,000 people (95% CI: 3.69, 4.08) in 1990 to 6.44 per 100,000 (95% CI: 5.86, 6.93) in 2021. The analysis revealed significant associations between PC incidence and the intake of nuts, omega-3 fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), trans fats, dietary sodium, and calcium. In typical countries, higher intake of nuts and PUFA was associated with a reduced incidence of PC, while trans fats were positively correlated with increased incidence. The age-standardized Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) prediction indicates that the incidence rates of PC will show a downward trend after 2021. CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence of PC exhibited a rapid upward trend, suggesting an increasing global healthcare burden. The findings of this study suggest that dietary lipid intake is significantly associated with PC incidence at a global level. This finding underscores the importance of dietary fat composition, particularly in the context of pancreatic cancer prevention, suggesting that individuals should pay attention to the types and sources of fats in their diets to mitigate disease risk.