Abstract
RNA and proteins can have diverse isoforms due to post-transcriptional and post-translational modifications. A fundamental question is whether these isoforms are mostly beneficial or the result of noisy molecular processes. To assess the plausibility of these explanations, we developed mathematical models depicting different regulatory architectures and investigated isoform evolution under multiple population genetic regimes. We found that factors beyond selection, such as effective population size and the number of cis-acting loci, significantly influence evolutionary outcomes. We found that sub-optimal phenotypes are more likely to evolve when populations are small and/or when the number of cis-loci is large. We also discovered that opposing selection on cis- and trans-acting loci can constrain adaptation, leading to a non-monotonic relationship between effective population size and optimization. More generally, our models provide a quantitative framework for developing statistical tests to analyze empirical data; as a demonstration of this, we analyzed A-to-I RNA editing levels in coleoids and found these to be largely consistent with non-adaptive explanations.