Abstract
The detection of tumor-derived cell-free DNA in plasma is one of the most promising directions in cancer diagnosis. The major challenge in such an approach is how to identify the tiny amount of tumor DNAs out of total cell-free DNAs in blood. Here we propose an ultrasensitive cancer detection method, termed 'CancerDetector', using the DNA methylation profiles of cell-free DNAs. The key of our method is to probabilistically model the joint methylation states of multiple adjacent CpG sites on an individual sequencing read, in order to exploit the pervasive nature of DNA methylation for signal amplification. Therefore, CancerDetector can sensitively identify a trace amount of tumor cfDNAs in plasma, at the level of individual reads. We evaluated CancerDetector on the simulated data, and showed a high concordance of the predicted and true tumor fraction. Testing CancerDetector on real plasma data demonstrated its high sensitivity and specificity in detecting tumor cfDNAs. In addition, the predicted tumor fraction showed great consistency with tumor size and survival outcome. Note that all of those testing were performed on sequencing data at low to medium coverage (1× to 10×). Therefore, CancerDetector holds the great potential to detect cancer early and cost-effectively.