Abstract
We develop a systematic helix-based computational method to predict RNA folding kinetics during transcription. In our method, the transcription is modeled as stepwise process, where each step is the transcription of a nucleotide. For each step, the kinetics algorithm predicts the population kinetics, transition pathways, folding intermediates, and the transcriptional folding products. The folding pathways, rate constants, and the conformational populations for cotranscription folding show contrastingly different features than the refolding kinetics for a fully transcribed chain. The competition between the transcription speed and rate constants for the transitions between the different nascent structures determines the RNA folding pathway and the end product of folding. For example, fast transcription favors the formation of branch-like structures than rod-like structures and chain elongation in the folding process may reduce the probability of the formation of misfolded structures. Furthermore, good theory-experiment agreements suggest that our method may provide a reliable tool for quantitative prediction for cotranscriptional RNA folding, including the kinetics for the population distribution for the whole conformational ensemble.