Abstract
For many years, pharmaceutical expenditure has been the second largest cost item for statutory health insurance funds (SHI) in Germany after hospital costs. Since prescriptions and expenditure on medicines play such a major role in the German healthcare system, the question arises as to what causes changes in prescriptions. To answer this question, the prescribing trends for the top 10 drugs in 2022 were analyzed over a period of 38 years, from 1985 to 2022. The prescribed defined daily doses (DDD) and the costs per defined daily dose for the 10 medicines were taken from the Arzneiverordnungsreport (AVR) from 1986 to 2023, and the changes in prescribing behavior and their causes were analyzed. The ten most important medicines in 2022, accounting for over 41% of all prescribed daily doses, were ramipril, candesartan, pantoprazole, amlodipine, atorvastatin, levothyroxine, torasemide, simvastatin, bisoprolol, and metoprolol. There are many different reasons for an increase in prescriptions, such as the introduction of generics, a positive study, or a price reduction. Further reasons for an increase in prescriptions are an extension of the indication or the recall of a competing medicine. A change in guidelines or the increasing treatment of laboratory values without clinical symptoms can also lead to an increase in prescriptions. There are also many different reasons for a drop in prescriptions, such as the generic launch of a competitor medicine or a positive study for a competitor medicine. Other reasons for a drop in prescriptions are a negative study or a discussion about the use of a drug. Sometimes, the reasons for prescription changes are also irrational. Overall, this is the most comprehensive long-term analysis of drug prescriptions in Germany. Our data is helpful for predicting drug prescriptions and for preventing future drug shortages not only in Germany but also worldwide.