Abstract
The short-circuit tolerance capability of a transformer is a key performance indicator for ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power system. As the core component of the transformer, the mechanical stability of the windings under the huge electromagnetic force generated by the short-circuit current directly determines the short-circuit tolerance capability of the transformer. Most current research focuses on the coupling analysis of electromagnetic fields and structural fields, while ignoring the influence of temperature, a crucial variable, on the mechanical properties of the winding materials. Therefore, this study conducted tests on the transformer winding conductors, insulating materials, and silicon steel sheet materials under different temperatures, and provided a mathematical model and variation rules of elastic modulus with temperature and the B-H curves of silicon steel sheets at different temperatures. Based on this, a calculation method considering the short-circuit force of the transformer winding under different temperatures of the transformer components was proposed. This method enables precise calculations of the transformer's mechanics under different temperatures and shows the distribution of leakage magnetic field, short-circuit force, and displacement of the winding under different transformer component temperatures. Finally, the Random Forest algorithm was used to estimate the short-circuit displacement of the transformer winding under different transformer component temperatures, and a short-circuit displacement prediction model based on temperature and impact frequency was provided. This offers a new method for evaluating the short-circuit capacity of the transformer. The feasibility of the calculation method was verified using a 750 kV transformer.