Abstract
Objective: Factors influencing the prognosis of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) in adults were analyzed based on multicentric data. Methods: Clinical data of 124 adult patients with HLH diagnosed in eight medical centers in the Huaihai Lymphoma Working Group from March 2014 to July 2020 were collected. The optimal truncation value of continuous variables was obtained based on the Maxstat algorithm, X-Tile software, and restricted cubic spline. Cox proportional risk regression model was used to construct the adult HLH risk prediction model, and the visualization of the model was realized through the histogram. The bootstrap resampling method was used to verify the model, C-index and calibration curve was used to verify the histogram, and the prediction accuracy was checked. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate the survival rate and draw the survival curve. Furthermore, the differences between groups were tested by log-rank. Results: The median age of the 124 patients was 55 (18-84) years, including 61 (49.19%) males. The most common etiology was infection. Serum ferritin increased in 110 cases (88.71%) , hepatosplenomegaly in 57 cases (45.97%) . Of the 124 patients, 77 (62.10%) died, and the median survival time of the patients was 7.07 months. Univariate results showed that the prognosis of adult HLH was influenced by sex, age, fibrinogen, serum creatinine, alanine aminotransferase, and albumin (P<0.05) . The results of multivariate analysis showed that gender, platelet, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and treatment regimens were independent influencing factors for prognosis. Based on the above five risk factors, the prediction model of the histogram was established, and the C-index of the model was 0.739. Finally, the calibration chart showed good consistency between the observed and predicted values of HLH. Conclusion: The prognosis of the adult hemophagocytic syndrome is influenced by many factors. Gender, platelet, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and treatment regimens are independent risk factors. Therefore, the established histogram provides a visual tool for clinicians to evaluate the prognosis of adult HLH.