Abstract
Expectations about future behavior have been shown to have a positive relationship with subsequent behavior. For patients in drug treatment, recovery should manifest changes in drug use and in cognitive perceptions of being able to refrain from use. The present study identified latent patterns of the longitudinal relationship between drug use expectation and illegal drug use during treatment. Latent variable mixture modeling identified three patterns of change over successive 3-month intervals during treatment: Improvers (48%), Decliners (33%), and Continuing Users (19%). The sample consisted of 497 patients in community-based outpatient methadone treatment. The utility of the latent patterns was shown through their relationship to treatment engagement, where Continuing Users had lower counseling rapport and time in treatment. These latent patterns also differed on drug use measures at follow-up. Additional analyses of expectations with measures of opioid use, cocaine use, or criminality yielded similar latent patterns. Expectations about future drug use were found to be a useful measure of cognitive change corresponding to drug use change. Its potential as a brief treatment management tool is noted.