Abstract
BACKGROUND: We aimed to identify specific patterns of physical multimorbidity, defined as the presence of two or more physical long-term conditions, and to examine the extent to which these specific patterns could predict future incident and persistent common mental health disorders (CMDs) in middle-aged adults enrolled in the UK Biobank. METHODS: We assessed prospective associations between physical multimorbidity status at the baseline assessment (2006-2010) and depression and anxiety 'caseness' according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ)-9 and the Generalised Anxiety Disorder Assessment (GAD)-7 at the follow-up assessment (2016) in 154,367 middle-aged adults enrolled in the UK Biobank (median age: 57 years, interquartile range = 50-62 years, 56.5% female, mean duration of follow-up: 7.6 years, standard deviation = 0.87). Patterns of physical multimorbidity were identified using exploratory factor analysis. Logistic regression was used to assess prospective associations between physical multimorbidity patterns at baseline and both incident and persistent depression and anxiety at follow-up. FINDINGS: Compared to those with no physical multimorbidity, having two (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) =1.41, 95%CI 1.32 to 1.53), three (aOR = 1.94, 95%CI 1.76 to 2.14), four (aOR = 2.38, 95%CI 2.07 to 2.74), and five or more (aOR = 2.89, 95%CI 2.42 to 3.45) physical conditions was prospectively associated with incident depression at follow-up in a dose response manner. Similar trends emerged for incident anxiety, persistent depression, and persistent anxiety, but associations were strongest for incident CMDs. Regarding specific patterns of physical MM, the respiratory pattern (aOR = 3.23, 95%CI 2.44 to 4.27) and the pain/gastrointestinal pattern (aOR = 2.19, 95%CI 1.92 to 2.50) emerged as the strongest predictors of incident depression. Similar results emerged for incident anxiety. INTERPRETATION: These findings highlight patterns of physical multimorbidity with the poorest prognosis for both emerging and persisting depression and anxiety. These findings might have significant implications for the implementation of integrated mental and physical healthcare and facilitate the development of targeted preventative interventions and treatment for those with physical multimorbidity. FUNDING: AR is supported by Guy's Charity grant number EIC180702; JAT is funded by Medical Research Council (MRC) number MR/SO28188/1; AD is funded by Guy's Charity grant number EIC180702 and MRC grant number MR/SO28188/1. JD is part supported by the ESRC Centre for Society and Mental Health at King's College London (ES/S012567/1), grants from the ESRC (ES/S002715/1), by the Health Foundation working together with the Academy of Medical Sciences, for a Clinician Scientist Fellowship, and by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration South London (NIHR ARC South London) at King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust. The views expressed are those of the author[s] and not necessarily those of the ESRC, NIHR, the Department of Health and Social Care or King's College London.