Abstract
Increased breast density decreases mammographic sensitivity due to masking of cancers by dense tissue. Tamoxifen exposure reduces mammographic density and, therefore, should improve screening sensitivity. We modelled how low-dose tamoxifen exposure could be used to increase mammographic sensitivity. Mammographic sensitivity was calculated using the KARMA prospective screening cohort. Two models were fitted to estimate screening sensitivity and detected tumor size based on baseline mammographic density. BI-RADS-dependent sensitivity was estimated. The results of the 2.5 mg tamoxifen arm of the KARISMA trial were used to define expected changes in mammographic density after six months exposure and to predict changes in mammographic screening sensitivity and detected tumor size. Rates of interval cancers and detection of invasive tumors were estimated for women with mammographic density relative decreases by 10-50%. In all, 517 cancers in premenopausal women were diagnosed in KARMA: 287 (56%) screen-detected and 230 (44%) interval cancers. Screening sensitivities prior to tamoxifen, were 76%, 69%, 53%, and 46% for BI-RADS density categories A, B, C, and D, respectively. After exposure to tamoxifen, modelled screening sensitivities were estimated to increase by 0% (p = 0.35), 2% (p < 0.01), 5% (p < 0.01), and 5% (p < 0.01), respectively. An estimated relative density decrease by ≥20% resulted in an estimated reduction of interval cancers by 24% (p < 0.01) and reduction in tumors >20 mm at detection by 4% (p < 0.01). Low-dose tamoxifen has the potential to increase mammographic screening sensitivity and thereby reduce the proportion of interval cancers and larger screen-detected cancers.