Abstract
This study aimed to estimate (1) the number of avoidable lung cancer cases attributable to residential radon in Finland in 2017, separately by age, sex, dwelling type and smoking status, (2) the impact of residential radon alone and the joint effect of residential radon and smoking on the number of lung cancers and (3) the potential decrease in the number of radon-attributable lung cancers if radon concentrations exceeding specified action levels (100, 200 and 300 Bq m(-3)) would have been mitigated to those levels. Population-based surveys of radon concentrations and smoking patterns were used. Observed radon levels were contrasted with 25 Bq m(-3) representing a realistic minimum level of exposure. Lung cancer risk estimates for radon and smoking were derived from literature. Lastly, the uncertainty due to the estimation of exposure and risk was quantified using a computationally derived uncertainty interval. At least 3% and at most 8% of all lung cancers were estimated as being attributable to residential radon. For small cell carcinoma, the proportion of cases attributable to radon was 8-13%. Among smokers, the majority of the radon-related cases were attributable to the joint effect of radon and smoking. Reduction of radon exposure to 100 Bq m(-3) action level would eliminate approximately 30% of radon-attributable cases. Estimates were low compared with the literature, given the (relatively high) radon levels in Finland. This was mainly due to the lower radon levels and higher smoking prevalence in flats than in houses and a more realistic point of comparison, factors which have been ignored in previous studies. The results can guide actions in radon protection and in prevention of lung cancers.